The following article was written by Prof. Dr. Dieter Spethmann and was originally published in The Walsingham Papers by The Walsingham Institute.
The Euro, common currency for now 13 member States (Eurozone) of the European Union (EU), was introduced on January 1st, 1999. Eight years of experience invite some questions and observations.
Is the common currency a single currency?
Not really. The European Central Bank (ECB) does not print or issue money. This right is reserved for the national central banks. 12 of the 13 member States of the Eurozone print (not including Slovenia) and issue their own bills, each of them identified by a letter preceding the number. X stands for Germany, U for France, Z for Belgium, L for Finland, Y for Greece, V for Spain, T for Ireland, S for Italy, R for Luxemburg, P for the Ne-therlands, N for Austria, M for Portugal. Each central bank has to finance a different inflation rate.
Are transnational payments easier now than before?
Yes. A bill issued in one member state is legal tender in each of the other member states.
How are such payments reflected in the pocket of the citizen?
If citizens of a member state find bills in their pockets that carry letters of origin from other Eurozone member states, such non-national bills have probably/possibly flown into their country because they purchased more there than at home.
Is there an inflation differential between the member states?
Yes. From 1999 through 2006 the aggregate inflation of each member state was: Slovenia 44,9 / Ireland 28,8 / Greece 26 / Spain 25,7 / Portugal 24,3 / Italy 18,6 / Netherlands 18,4 / Luxemburg 18,3/ Belgium 16,2 / Austria 14,4 / France 13,6 / Finland 12,4 / Germany 11,8. This means for Germany an annual inflation rate of 1,5%, for Ireland of 3,6%, for Spain of 3,2% etc.
Which are the inflations differentials measured against the slowest infla-ting country which is Germany?
Slovenia 33,1 / Ireland 17 / Greece 14,2 / Spain 13,9 / Portugal 12,5 / Italy 6,8 / Netherlands 6,6 / Luxemburg 6,5 / Belgium 4,4 / Austria 2,6 / France 1,8 / Finland 0,6.
Is there any chance for monetary compensation between the member states?
No. If a Euro bill has a smaller purchase power at home than in any of the other 12 member states, it possibly flows into one of these other countries. Thus, Euro bills flow from higher inflating countries into the others: Spanish Euros buy more and more German companies which was not possible for Pesetas. Because the divergence in purchase power is structural, there is no logical reason for a compensation between the respective economies. The inflow of non-natio-nal Euro bills increases the inflation in the slower inflating countries.
Has the central bank of the country of inflow any claim from a surplus in non-national bills?
Not to my knowledge. Here is the essential privilege for higher national inflation inside a common currency: Print money and use it in another Euro country with lower price levels.
Is this a new type to settle current account deficits between nation states?
Yes. Beggar thy neighbour and inflate his money supply. The govern-ment of Portugal says in the internet frankly: “Portugal’s foreign trade balance has regularly shown a heavy deficit, which it finances through … net transfers from the EU.” Voilà. By the way: Portugal in 2006 showed a current account deficit of 9,3% of GDP – higher than the USA.
Nominal interest rates and real interest rates. The ECB offers the same len-ding rate to everybody inside the Eurozone. Thus, real interest rates diverge depending on national inflation.
Does this mean that borrowers in the slowest inflating country pay higher real interest rates than borrowers in any other member state?
Yes. And vice versa. Spanish borrowers may pay a zero real interest.
Does a diverging real interest influence the job situation? Yes.
How is it possible that Spain shows a current account deficit of $ 108 bn or 8,6% of GDP and has no problem financing it?
See Portugal, or Greece, or Italy, or others. The twin system EU/ECB takes care of such deficits.
How does the ECB acquire such big volumes of foreign exchange?
Through transfers from the surplus countries Germany, The Netherlands, Bel-gium, Luxemburg, Austria or Finland.
Do such surplus countries receive a fair value for transferring their foreign exchange to the ECB? Not to my knowledge.
How will the deficit countries ever reach equilibrium in their current accounts?
I do not see this. They are laggards in the globalization but do not have to worry. They find tranquillity at the expense of their surplus brothers.
Is all this compatible with the solemn no-bailout-clause in Art 103 of the Maastricht Treaty?
No. It is a contradiction and violation: “Actions of consolida-tion” inside the Eurosystem, between 13 Central Banks and their subsidiary ECB. None of these events are part of national bookkeeping although their influence on national economies is enormous: The deficit brothers buy value for paper money, the surplus brothers lose value for paper money.
Stand these figures for an optimal currency area?
No. They stand for diver-gence rather than convergence. Equilibrium is now further away between the Euro member states than in 1999. An optimal currency area would comprise the surplus countries Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, Austria and Finland. Such structure would permit the deficit countries to devalue and thus to regain competitiveness in the world market.
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